shots at the goal …..

shots at the goal

the team that takes more shots at the goal is more likely to score more goals is the conventional wisdom

but the tests done by Martin Lames, Professor of Training Science and Computer Science in sport  at the technical University at Munich show something different
his team of researchers examined data from matches played in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga between 2005 and 2011.
Thats some 8,232 matches
and what do they show ?
the team that shoots more actually wins less than half the time !
across their data set as a whole, 47 per cent of teams with more shots won their games.
In Italy and Germany, its as low as 45 per cent
so you may say that what matters is not shots taken at the goal, but shots taken accurately.
so lets have a look at the data that was limited to only those shots that were on target
having a greater number of accurate shots than your opponent does make you more likely to win a game, but not by much – the team with more shots on target wins somewhere between 50 and 58 per cent of the time, depending on the league.
so dont go by the statistics that will get flashed at the half time of the number shots the team has taken at the goal
your team may have taken more shots but their chances of winning remain the same
fifty – fifty !

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